The bond market is waking up to the idea that inflation might be a bit stickier and the Fed's hands are tied. Alf and Brent discuss what this implies for global macro asset classes, and highlight a few trade ideas. 

Sign up for the free waiting list for Brent's upcoming Spectra School course: https://www.spectramarkets.com/school/

Volatility is Coming

The Macro Trading Floor is a fun and actionable macro and markets podcast hosted by Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly. If you are looking for banter, financial education, and actionable trade ideas this is the podcast for you!

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In this podcast, Alf invites Peter Farac (aka @countdraghula on Twitter) to the show.
Peter brings a wealth of experience running money and has specific skills in rates and vol markets.
Alf and Peter discuss where the US business cycle actually is, how markets are positioned, and talk shop: how do we actually trade these markets?

Follow Peter @countdraghula on X, Free Newsletter: www.macroisdead.com

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In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how markets are becoming quickly complacent with realized and implied volatility collapsing across asset classes.
The only surprises are still coming from bond markets, while something interesting is brewing in China which could have a meaningful impact for macro going forward.

Plus, they discuss the odds of a Trump win and its implications.

Useful link: https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024
https://www.semafor.com/article/05/21/2024/imprisoned-ex-trump-aide-peter-navarro-predicts-ouster-of-fed-chair-jay-powell

How Macro Traders Navigate Uncertainties

(Links mentioned in the podcast are in the show notes below: check them out!)

Alf and Brent discuss the soft patch the US seems to be going through and the CPI number released this week. If markets are going to continue with this low-vol grind higher, how do you trade macro now? Also, China seems to be cooking something big this time.

- Contact me (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg to check out the Crowded Trades Indicator

- Link to Bill Bishop piece on China: 
https://sinocism.com/p/putin-in-china-reactions-to-us-tariffs

- Link to the interview with Paul Tudor Jones: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/alfonso-peccatiello-72156a6a_paul-tudor-jones-market-wizards-activity-7196033190011060226-jDKp?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

How To Trade Macro Now?

The Bank of England pre-announced a rate cut in June, the Swedish Riksbank cut interest rates, and there are a few early signs of weakness emerging in the US as well.
Is the market ready for a regime switch?
Alf and Brent also discuss how they approach trading into volatile events, breaking long-term correlation, and the structural USD strength.

Links mentioned in the show:
https://www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/cad-v-wti-divortium/
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#Tab3

Early Signs of Weakness

Descrizione: Nominal growth is showing some early signs of fatigue, while economists' expectations remain elevated and market pricing still quite hawkish. Alf and Brent discuss potential opportunities arising from this setup, and spend time arguing whether Powell just announced a new Fed Put this week. 

Link to Brent's favorite podcast this week: https://pod.link/1594407589/episode/48072fb61a2a4cd1bf4fbbf9dff7e555

Volatility is Coming

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